Kazakhstan’s geoeconomic hedging: Navigating the BRI and the Global Gateway for EU-China connectivity

Abstract

This article examines how Kazakhstan strategically navigates the complex and evolving landscape of EU-China connectivity, with a specific focus on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Global Gateway (GG). Drawing on the theoretical framework of geoeconomic hedging, the paper argues that Kazakhstan’s strategic adaptability enables it to maximise national benefits while mitigating risks associated with an increasingly competitive Eurasian environment. Through a detailed empirical analysis, the paper identifies key infrastructure projects and investments from both the BRI and the GG that converge on Kazakh territory. It demonstrates that Kazakhstan actively leverages its geographical position and its multi-vector foreign policy to engage with both initiatives. Ultimately, it concludes that Kazakhstan effectively mediates and facilitates EU-China connectivity, serving as a critical interregional connector. This unique role allows Kazakhstan to convene the interests of Beijing and Brussels, offering a compelling case study for the future of Eurasian trade and transport architecture.